A Verification of National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in 2004

摘要

A verification of National Hurricane Center (NHC) official track and intensity forecasts for the 2004 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is presented. Track forecasts for the 12- to 72-hour (12-72h) projections set records for accuracy this year, although track skill has changed little over the past three seasons. While track forecast errors are roughly half of what they were 15 years ago, there has been little change in the accuracy of intensity forecasts over this period.