Hurricane History of the North Carolina Outer Banks (USA), 1586 to 2004

摘要

We update the number and intensity of hurricanes affecting North Carolina's Outer Banks from 1851-2004 (Dolan and Lins 1986). Eighteen made direct landfall on the Outer Banks during the past 154 years, and a return interval graphic of these storms is included. Ten additional hurricanes generated winds of 74 mph or greater on these islands but did not make landfall. A list of significant historic storms from 1586-1846 is also included. The probability of hurricane winds occurring on the Outer Banks in a given year is 0.18, and the expected return period is 5.5 yrs. The annual probability of an actual hurricane landfall is 0.12, with an expected return period of 8.6 yrs. A hurricane with wind speeds similar to Hurricane Isabel (2003) or greater (Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) strikes the Outer Banks an average of once in 14 yrs. A severe hurricane of Category 4 or 5 is very rare, occurring only once in the 154-yr record.