Understanding Piping Plover Population Dynamics through Mathematical Model, with Application to Northern Assateague Island, Maryland, and Long Island, New York, Barrier Beaches

摘要

The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a small migratory shorebird that breeds in three geographic areas: along the Atlantic Ocean coast; sandy beaches of the Great Lakes; and along major rivers, lakes, and wetlands of the northern Great Plains of the United States. This federally listed endangered species is dependent upon non-vegetated to sparsely vegetated sandy areas near bay, lake, and ocean intertidal areas for breeding, and it has experienced population declines due to reduction in habitat along developed and stabilized coasts, increased predation, and human distur- bance. This paper explores a simple mathematical model, the logistic equation, which appears to represent leading factors governing a plover population. The model was found to describe plover population data from two locations on the Atlantic coast: northern Assateague Island, Maryland, and the south shore of Long Island, New York. Model predictions and possible applications are discussed in the context of a potential aid for plover management.