Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change

摘要

Paeonia(Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat forP. delavayiandP. rockiiby Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas forP. delavayiandP. rockiiencompassed ca. 4.46×105km2and 1.89×105km2, respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shapingP. delavayidistribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shapingP. rockiidistribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range ofP. delavayidecreased whileP. rockiiincreased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species.