A quantitative assessment of energy strategy evolution in China and US

摘要

Energy strategy evolution of China and US is assessed quantitatively based on Bai and Perron's structure breaks test. Results indicate no break for time series of energy intensity, while series of carbon emissions per GDP, proportion of renewable energy production and oil importing reliance are characterized as segmented trend stationary process around one or two structural breaks. Execution of China and US energy strategies does not change the growth path of carbon emissions per GDP, and the pollution caused by energy production and consumption is one of the problems to be solved urgently. The impact of China energy strategy on the proportion of renewable energy production is inconsistent with that of US, suggesting that China can learn from the diversified energy supply, renewable energy quota system policies, and R&D incentive policies of US. Energy strategies in China and US pose a significant impact on the oil importing reliance, indicating that the strategy to reduce the oil dependence from US is not working.