Micro-watershed level population based fuelwood consumption dynamics:Implications of seasonal vs. annual models for sustainable energy resource planning

摘要

Most developing countries such as India use biomass as a primary source of energy especially in domestic sectors in the rural area. The increasing population exerts more pressure on the biomass resource thereby initiating energy crisis in the region. The issue of shortage of fuelwood in the remote mountain regions is increasing since the alternative energy resources have limitations either due to poor economic condition of the people, complex technology involved or being inaccessible due to remoteness. It is also seen that the use of traditional biomass as a source of energy will improve the livelihood conditions of the people and it will give ecological benefits to the region if other associated factors like health, gender etc. are taken care of and thus the planners aim to focus on sustaining the natural fuelwood resources. The present paper attempts to predict the future fuelwood demand based on the present consumption pattern in the upland villages of Indian Himalaya. Major consumption characteristics such as fuelwood consumption at different altitude and per capita fuelwood consumption (PCFC) are studied. Population dynamics model is postulated in order to assess future population vs. fuelwood consumption scenario, thereby projecting the future population and the future fuelwood demand in the region. It is observed that variations in fuelwood consumption exist at different altitudes in the hilly region. Mathematical modelling and time-series simulation model was proposed and validated model to predict the future expected demand of fuelwood resources in Phakot watershed. Based on the projected population and season based fuelwood requirements, the watershed will have a total fuelwood demand of 19,327 t in 2011 which is expected to reach 36,462 t in 2021. Such studies on the future resource demand trends will help in finding suitable region-specific and need-based alternative strategies for achieving sustainable fuelwood management at the micro-level.