Integrated value of shale gas development: A comparative analysis in the United States and China

摘要

This paper is to explore the differences of the integrated value of shale gas development between the US and China. On the basis of an extensive literature survey and 17 in-depth personal interviewswith domestic experts, a fuzzy-AHP model is exploited herein to evaluate the development of shale gas in the US and China. The fuzzy-AHP model encompasses 21 indicators, which can be further categorized into 4 critical factors: (1) market prospects, (2) environmental impacts, (3) conditions of resource & occurrence, and (4) general conditions of extraction & utilization. Among the 21 indicators, market demand, cost and price, technologies, gas content, water contamination/supply, and policy contribute significantly to the integrated value of the model. According to the integrated value of the shale gas development in the US and China, the comparative analysis suggests that there is a large gap between these two countries. Furthermore, differences in shale gas development between the US and China are identified and reasons for these differences are analyzed. The US-China comparative analysis and the experience from US suggest that government policies will be crucial to determine the future development of shale gas in China and other countries.