Exploring the impact space of different technologies using a portfolio constraint based approach for multi-objective optimization of integrated urban energy systems

摘要

Optimization-based modelling provides valuable guidance for designing integrated urban energy systems. However, modelers have to make certain assumptions and they may lack awareness of realistic conditions such as decision-makers' preferences on certain technology, which can easily lead the obtained optimal solution to be invalid. Therefore, instead of focusing on one "fragile" optimal solution, this paper provides a systematic overview of the contribution each technology can bring to the whole system design so as to achieve the optimum. To achieve this, a portfolio constraint based approach is proposed, which is inspired by the modelling to generate alternatives (MGA) method as well as the eps-constraint method for multi-objective optimization. By varying the threshold values of portfolio constraints, a series of solutions can be gathered as an "impact space" representing the economic and environmental contributions of each technology for the whole system design. A practical Fitting of Ellipses method is further applied to quantify the size of the impact space. Through observing the formation of the impact space, more valuable insights on system design can be obtained.The proposed approach is applied to a case study of an urban district in Shanghai, China, where a generalized urban energy system model involving commonly used energy supply technologies is established. Various technologies and design options lead to significantly different impact spaces, where CHP is found to have the largest impact on system design. Overall, instead of merely providing decision-maker a very specific solution, this paper introduces a new approach to evaluate multiple technologies when designing integrated urban energy systems.