Offshore wind resource assessment of Persian Gulf using uncertainty analysis and GIS

摘要

This paper, focused on offshore wind resource assessment of the Persian Gulf using uncertainty method. In this method, for better estimation of wind energy potential, the uncertainties due to wind speed, sea surface roughness, air density and wind turbine power production were considered. For this purpose, first, a 25-year (1984-2008) ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data from over 550 points in the region were collected. Then by analyzing the data, the probability of density of each parameter was established. Next; a Monte Carlo simulation was used for long-term simulation of wind field and energy production. The results showed that the Persian Gulf is capable of generating over 2980 GWh per year which is 5.3% lower than results of the conventional analysis. A detailed GIS (Geographic Information System) analysis depicted that middle and southern parts of the region have a high level of wind energy potential. Also, an economic analysis showed that by 15% interest rate, offshore wind farms cannot compete the global electricity production rates; however, by decreasing the interest rate to 5%, the southern, southwestern, and a part of northern shoreline are capable of generating offshore wind electricity in the range of global offshore electricity production costs. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.