Future energy planning to maximize renewable energy share for the south Caspian Sea climate

摘要

In recent decades global warming has turned into an international concern. Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases (GHG) are produced through burning fossil fuel leading to an increase in the global warming effect; thus, GHG reduction contributes to mitigating climate change. Utilizing renewable energies, increasing efficiency of and capacity factor (CF) of existing power plants, and recycling waste energy in various industries are convenient solutions to improve the energy systems performance to reduce fossil fuel consumption, leading to GHG emission. So, there is a substantial need for planning and evaluating the energy systems in which various technologies are used, technically and economically. Theis study's main objectives are utilizing the capacity of renewable energies such as biomass, wind, solar, hydropower, and enhancement of CF and efficiency of the power plants in the Mazandaran region in the south of the Caspian Sea. The energy system considered for the region is modeled and analyzed by six scenarios in this paper. The results indicated that the share of renewable energies in electricity production could be increased from 5.4% to 47.7%. The results of cost analysis show that by applying the sixth scenario, which is integrated policies of increasing RER share and improvement of efficiency and capacity factor. The trends of total annual cost, CO2 emission, and fossil fuel consumption are reduced compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. The average cost saved by this scenario is about 220 MUSD/year. The average amount of fossil fuels and CO2 emission save are 11 TWh/year and 2.438 Mt/year between 2020 and 2030, respectively. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.