A new accident causation model based on information flow and its application in Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident

摘要

Accident causation models can provide a framework of reference to help understand and explain how an accident occurs. The role of information flow (IF) in accident causation is profound. In this study, an accident causation model was developed and then validated to address the relevant accident-causing mechanisms based on IF. Three steps were followed to develop the new model. Firstly, the roles of IF in system safety were confirmed. Secondly, the principles of accident-causing mechanisms were addressed from the perspective of IF. Thirdly, the system safety factors were classified at the micro-, meso- and macro- levels. At each level, these factors were further divided into six information-centric aspects. The structure of the new model, known as the IF-based Accident-causing Model (IFAM), was constructed based on the hypothesis that any breakdown of IF at each level or between two adjacent levels of a system is the potential causation of accidents. To demonstrate the viability of IFAM, the Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident, which shocked the world and aroused widespread media attention, was selected as the case in this study. Results showed that this model can provide a new idea and method for accident analysis, as well as a new perspective for system safety investigation.