A paired comparison approach to improve the quantification of management influences in air transportation

摘要

This paper provides an approach to integrate management factors into risk analysis. The approach focuses on paired comparison quantification to differentiate and prioritize a set of management influences to reduce human or technical failure, and to quantify the size of different management influences on risk by combining it with Bayesian belief nets (BBN). The BBN model of Causal Modeling for Air Transport Safety (CATS) has been used as a case study. This approach enables better reflection in risk analysis of management functions as specific actions which can be taken by managers to maintain safety in safety critical activities.