Data assimilation of incoherent scatter radar observation into a one-dimensional midlatitude ionospheric model by applying ensemble Kalman filter

摘要

In this paper, electron densities during 25–28 September 2000 observed by the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar (ISR) are assimilated into a one-dimensional midlatitude ionospheric theoretical model by using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique. It is found that (1) the derived vertical correlation coefficients of electron density show obvious altitude dependence. These variations are consistent with those from ISR observations. (2) The EnKF technique has a better performance than the 3DVAR technique especially in the data-gap regions, which indicates that the EnKF technique can extend the influences of observations from data-rich regions to data-gap regions more effectively. (3) Both the altitude and local time variations of the root mean square error (RMSE) of electron densities for the ensemble spread and ensemble mean from observation behave similarly. It is shown that the spread of the ensemble members can represent the deviations of ensemble mean from observations. (4) To achieve a better prediction performance, the external driving forces should also be adjusted simultaneously to the real weather conditions. For example, the performance of prediction can be improved by adjusting neutral meridional wind using equivalent wind method. (5) In the EnKF, there are often erroneous correlations over large distance because of the sampling error. This problem may be avoided by using a relative larger ensemble size.