A decision support frame for climate change impacts on sea level and river runoff: Case studies of the Stockholm and Gdansk areas in the Baltic Sea region

摘要

The purpose of the decision support frame (DSF) is to communicate the results of climate change models to land-use planners and decision makers in order to assist the formulation of mitigation strategies on a sound scientific basis. In the present study, the implementation of the DSF developed in two areas located in the Baltic Sea region, the Stockholm Maelar area in Sweden, and the Gdansk area in Poland, is described. Because of relative uplift and subsidence existing within the region, the effective sea-level rise is lower in the northern part of the Baltic Sea than in the south. The Stockholm Maelar area is unaffected by sea-level rise but by the changing flood pattern due to the increase in river runoff. On the other hand, the Gdansk area is affected by subsidence and is consequently impacted by sea-level rise. Considerations on coastal protection and groundwater supply are needed.