海運・中古船市況データを利用した海運会社の船田構成戦略モデル

摘要

Shipping market shows higher volatility than real economy in financial movements. Although shipping and shipbuilding companies have their own methods for the decision-making in the unstable market, they will not reveal their specific approaches. The present paper proposes methods of evaluating operation strategies, extracting consensus outlook of market participants from price differences in secondhand ships. The paper also demonstrates the comparison of best strategies at a sharp decline of the market. The proposed methods of evaluating portfolio of fleet and its management will provide basis for the future analysis of volatile shipping market.%1．緒言海運市況は船腹需給の変動により大きく上昇と下降を繰り返しており1），海運業，造船業の双方が大きな影響を受けている．海運業界は2008年後半の急速な景気後退の影響を受けて，輸送需要の急激な収縮に直面した．