Emergency evacuation model: accessibility as a starting point

摘要

In evacuation scenarios, assuming evacuees' potential location before a hazard situation is an initial step for any simulation model. This initial step is crucial in analysing evacuation in urban open spaces, which is a less controllable environment than enclosed spaces, such as analysing evacuation inside buildings. There are problems with conventional models dealing with evacuation in urban spaces. They start with a random distribution of evacuees or give an equal distribution to their location with speculated weighting factor for specific exits. Moreover, these models focus on the hazard area without appropriate consideration to the surrounding context that affects the evacuation process. Their simulation outcomes give an erroneous result that would affect the decision-maker's actions in real evacuation conditions. The paper examines an alternative starting point to analyse evacuation models in urban open spaces. It verifies evacuees' potential location before starting the simulation scenarios based on accessibility analysis. A space syntax geographic information system and field survey are used as triangulation methods for analysing the evacuees' potential location and movements in urban spaces surrounding the hazard place. United Arab Emirates university campus (Islamic Institute) in Al-Ain city is used as a case study for applying the paper's suggested methods.