A Comparative Analysis of Population Ageing in Urban and Rural Areas of England and Wales, and Poland Over the Last Three Census Intervals

摘要

Population ageing has become a feature of many European and other Western countries over the last two decades as older people become more dominant in their demographic structures. This trend has the potential for important economic and social impacts, which are likely to be played out in both national and local contexts. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of comparing regional-level population data over a historical period, and of tracking changes in the age structures of two countries, one from Western Europe (England and Wales in the UK) and the other from Eastern-Central Europe (Poland). The comparisons are based on analysis of statistics from the last four population censuses in these countries, and in each case results are presented at both a national scale and for a consistent set of small spatial units divided into urban and rural categories. The results confirm previously identified population growth in rural areas in England and Wales, and in urban communes (grainy) in Poland. Population ageing occurred earlier in the English and Welsh areas, although growth in the number of elderly people in the Polish gminy accelerated during the most recent intercensal period. Recent population trends in both countries at the national and small-rnarea scales not only reflect contemporary socio-economic adjustments, but also past demographic and political events. The former rejuvenation of the northern and western parts of Poland by a young mobile population after the Second World War, following their transfer from Germany, is contemporarily reflected in population ageing in these areas as the early incomers reach older age groups.