Recovery Progresses Despite Stock Market Jitters

摘要

Beneath the fog, distrust, uncertainly, and fear lies a business recovery struggling to be recognized as the following evidence shows. Real GDP rose at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter, according to revised data. More than half of that gain resulted from a much smaller rate of inventory reduction than in the previous quarter. Inventories had been declining all through 2001, but the pace surged in the final quarter of the year when it reached an annual rate of $119 billion. In the first quarter, the rate of decline was only $28 billion. Although modest reductions continued in the second quarter, stock/sales ratios are now the lowest they have been in decades. Businesses may not replace inventories rapidly in the present recovery cycle for many reasons, but it is clear that an important negative has been removed from the business outlook Growth rates of 3.5 to 4 percent in real GDP for the rest of the yep are a reasonable expectation.