Why is the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Different this Time?

摘要

With oil prices around $70 per barrel compared with a low of about $10 a few years ago, one of the biggest questions is why the impact on the world economy seems (so far) to have been so small. There are lots of hypotheses and stories. One is that the impacts, on inflationary pressure and on world growth, will come through soon enough - they are just delayed. Another is that the nature of the 'shock' - demand rather than supply - is the difference that makes the difference. Yet another is the view that the relatively slow rise in the oil price - spread out over several years - makes it easier for economies to adjust. None of these seems very satisfactory. More plausible accounts appeal to changes in economic behaviour or structure and/or to changes in economic policy — particularly better designed monetary policy in many OECD countries. But what are these changes and why should monetary policy make such a difference?