Probabilistic model for the economic evaluation of nuclear projects

摘要

In this article probabilistic model for the economic evaluation of nuclear power plants was developed. It was focused on modeling the potential risks associated to financial, safety and institutional aspects involved in the reactor construction schedule. The probabilistic results have shown a wide spread on the economic performance due to the schedule complexity and coupling of tasks. This spread increases exponentially to the discount rate, and hence, becomes more important for developing countries. Moreover, the probabilistic assessment-rather than classical approach-seems to be the right choice in order to take into account coupled uncertainties relevant on nuclear projects.