Minimising the economic cost and risk to accelerator-driven subcritical reactor technology: The case of designing for flexibility: Part 1

摘要

Demonstrating the generation of electricity for commercial markets with accelerator-driven subcritical reactor (ADSR) technology will incur substantial financial risk. This risk will arise from traditional uncertainties associated with the construction of nuclear power stations and also from new technology uncertainties such as the reliability of the required accelerator system. The sensitivity of the economic value of ADSRs to the reliability of the accelerator system is assessed. Using linear accelerators as an example of choice for the accelerator technology, the economic assessment considers an ADSR with either one or two accelerators driving it. The extent to which a second accelerator improves the accelerator system reliability is determined, as are the costs for that reliability improvement. Two flexible designs for the accelerator system are also considered, derived from the real options analysis technique. One seeks to achieve the benefits of both the single and dual accelerator ADSR configurations through initially planning to build a second accelerator, but only actually constructing it once it is determined to be economically beneficial to do so. The other builds and tests an accelerator before committing to constructing a reactor. Finally, a phased multiple-reactor park with an integrated system of accelerators is suggested and discussed. The park uses the principles of redundancy as for the Dual accelerator ADSR and flexibility as for the real options design, but for a lower cost per unit of electricity produced.