One puzzle these days is why americans are so confident at the shopping mall and so glum in opinion polls. By many measures, the country's prosperity is broad-based. Families are buying and renovating homes at a ferocious pace. Sales of existing homes in 2005 will reach a record 7.1 million units, predicts the National Association of Realtors. Since mid- 2003, the number of payroll jobs has increased by 4.2 million. The unemployment rate of 5 percent is fairly low by historic standards. But in polls, Americans are distinctly downbeat. The University of Michigan's survey of consumer confidence was 74.2 in October, a big drop from 96.5 in July. The three-month decline is the second largest on record (the first occurred around the 1990 recession).
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