In one of history's most extraordinary forecasts, the Greek historian Polybius in the second century BC predicted the demise of the Roman Empire some 600 years before it fell. Like others of his time, Polybius held a cyclical view of history in which societies, like biological systems, develop through growth, maturity, senescence and death. Polybius might be more celebrated today had he based his prediction on a different theory. Retrospectively, his forecast was no more challenging than anticipating the death of an ox. Cyclical theories, like the phenomena they postulate, come and go. They have been espoused by historians from Polybius to Oswald Spengler. Serious historians have long held cyclical theories in disrepute, but now they're back, pushed in part by biologists who are accustomed to cycling or pulsing in such systems as predator-prey relationships and ecosystem development. C. S. Holling, for example, has developed a nuanced cyclical view in his 'panarchy' theory, and Kenneth Watt has explored cycling in population, resources and economics.
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机译：根据历史上最非同寻常的预测之一，希腊历史学家波利比乌斯在公元前2世纪预言了罗马帝国的灭亡大约600年前。像他那个时代的其他人一样，波利比乌斯对历史具有周期性的看法，在这种历史中，社会（如生物系统）通过生长，成熟，衰老和死亡而发展。如果波利比乌斯的预测基于另一种理论，今天可能会更加盛大。回顾起来，他的预测并不比预测牛的死亡更具挑战性。循环理论，就像它们所假定的现象一样，来去去去。从波利比乌斯到奥斯瓦尔德·斯宾格勒的历史学家都拥护着它们。严肃的历史学家长期以来一直以周期性理论为耻，但现在它们又回来了，部分被习惯于在捕食者-猎物关系和生态系统发展等系统中循环或搏动的生物学家推动。例如，霍林（C. S. Holling）在他的“全权制”理论中发展了一种细微的周期性观点，而肯尼斯·瓦特（Kenneth Watt）则在人口，资源和经济学领域进行了探索。
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