Development of Anthropogenic Raw Material Stocks: A Retrospective Approach for Prospective Scenarios

摘要

The material stocks in the anthropo-sphere are growing faster than ever due to urbanization and growing per capita use. Owing to the growing potential insecurity of raw material supply the evaluation of resources gains increasing attention. Despite growing utilization of anthropogenic deposits, 'urban mining' has not yet sufficiently been supported by specific exploration methods. An exploration method for anthropogenic deposits is proposed and described by application to the copper stocks of Switzerland. The method combines material flow analysis with a bottom-up analysis of material stocks. The stock composition and temporal characteristics are analysed by surveys and literature analysis. The stock amounts to 269 ± 31 kg capita for the year 2000. The retrospective data are used as parameters to construct a dynamic stock model, which is calibrated by historical trade statistics. The potential for drafting scenarios is discussed. The stock situation in Switzerland is reviewed and compared with that of other regions.