A New Risk Assessment Model for Underground Mine Water Inrush Based on AHP and D-S Evidence Theory

摘要

Effective risk assessment of underground water inrush is the prerequisite and basis for mine water hazard control and safe mining. An inrush risk assessment system was set up, based on a comprehensive analysis of the factors of mine water inrush risk and improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A new judgment matrix was constructed based on a scale of 1-9. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) synthetic rule was improved on the basis of improved AHP; the frame of discernment proposed includes water-inrush, critical condition, and no water-inrush. A water-inrush integration decision-making model was thus established. Finally, using a typical underground mine in China, the new model was verified using this method. The probability of water inrush was 0.822, which is broadly in line with the actual situation, indicating that the model is feasible and applicable.