The Libyan war is currently both the most important proxy war in Africa/Middle-East and an ever-changing conflict, full of sudden turns of events. These happen on the battlefield - where the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), headed by President Fayez al-Serraj, and the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Field Marshall Khalifa Belqasim Haftar, are facing one another, supported by external actors - but also elsewhere, as the dynamics of the conflict spill over the Libyan borders. Historical allies have found themselves on opposite sides and divided on parallel issues, such as control of the Eastern Mediterranean and its oil resources, or the expansionist ambitions of proxy actors such as Russia and Turkey. This has resulted in a complex overlap of situations, whose outcome and consequences are more uncertain than ever in Libya and beyond. Backed by Egypt, the UAE, Russia, Jordan and France, Haftar has gradually gained ground in Libya since 2015. In 2019, he launched an attack against Tripoli. Moscow's military support, formalised by a cooperation agreement in 2017 and made manifest in the deployment of 1,200 mercenaries from Russian private military contractor Wagner, was crucial to this result. But in March 2020, the GNA counterattacked by launching Operation Peace Storm - with the support of Turkish tanks, drones, military staff and 10,000 Syrian fighters - which resulted in the re-occupation of Tripoli and marked a turning point in the conflict.
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