Open War With Iran Unlikely -Yet Tensions Are Rife

摘要

The Persian Gulf is a sub-region in which crises - including wars - occur from time to time. Alarmist voices, warning against inevitable war with Iran, are also heard on a regular basis. This does not mean, however, that the situation can be ignored. Although it seems that bellicose rhetoric is only a theatrical play, there is no certainty that war will not break out accidentally when, for example, one side misinterprets its adversary's intent. Another war in the Persian Gulf - especially with a large and strategically important state such as Iran - would have global consequences. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's vital oil artery. Open sources indicate that in 2018 roughly 18 million barrels of oil transited this narrow chokepoint every day. Iran remains very active in the region. Armed groups controlled, supported or at least inspired by Tehran constitute real military power in countries such as Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. Tensions in the Persian Gulf, as throughout the entire Middle East, are now higher than ever. Axes of the biggest and most worrying tensions are between Iran and Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia and Iran and the United States. Incidents such as clandestine attacks on oil vessels raise tensions in the Persian Gulf even further. President Donald Trump, who sparked controversy when he warned that a war would be "the end" of Iran, fuels this belligerent rhetoric. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif responded that such "genocidal taunts won't end Iran."