As these words are written, the United States is celebrating Independence Day. That prompts reflection on where the nation may be headed - and what effect that may have on the rest of us. From a defence and security perspective, the path ahead is little clearer than it has been in the past - and for the same fundamental reasons. Circumstances - and therefore policies - can change at the drop of a hat, influenced as they are by often transitory fears and viewpoints. That injects uncertainty into the evaluation and decisionmaking processes of the world's leaders. And uncertainty is potentially dangerous. There appears to be a new game in town, however. It's called Washington Hold'Em and, just like its counterpart, Texas Hold'Em, it is a game of high stakes poker, of bluff and counter-bluff, of image over substance. What is more, it is taking place in a different arena, with a different arsenal of weapons, as the Trump administration girds its loins for potential economic warfare. Weapons of Mass Destruction? Not so much. Washington Means Disruption? Much more likely.
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