Evaluation Index System and Evaluation Method of China's Regional Potential for Electrical Energy Substitution

摘要

Electrical energy substitution is used as a national strategy to promote the energy consumption revolution, increase the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption, increase the proportion of coal used for power generation in total coal consumption, increase the share of renewable energy in electricity consumption, and reduce air pollutant emissions; its importance in the national energy strategy is beyond doubt. Evaluating the potential of electrical energy substitution in various regions of China is an indispensable step in effectively carrying out electrical energy substitution. Only by clearly identifying the potential and characteristics of electrical energy substitution in each region can an effective electrical energy substitution strategy be formulated. This paper constructs a regional electrical energy substitution potential evaluation index system, based on comprehensive consideration of the influencing factors and regional differences in the potential of electrical energy substitution. The weight of each indicator is determined by a combination of cloud model and entropy method. The improved Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) evaluation model by connection degree is used to evaluate the potential of electrical energy substitution in each region. Finally, this index system and evaluation method are used to evaluate the potential of electrical energy substitution in twenty-five regions in the State Grid jurisdiction, and the evaluation results are analyzed; the effectiveness of evaluation index system and evaluation method are verified. The practical significance of this paper in providing important theoretical support for State Grid to implement electrical energy substitution according to local conditions.