Modelling the impact of double hull technology on oil spill numbers

摘要

This article presents the results of modelling the behaviour of oil spill numbers published by the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation over the period 1970 to 2005. Poisson count or negative binomial models are estimated to identify the major determinants of oil spill numbers over this period. The results are used to estimate the number of oil spills that would have occurred in the absence of the adoption of double hull technology. Other potential factors, such as changes in the regulatory regimes regarding oil transportation, were found to be insignificant.