Keynes as the first behavioral economist: the case of the attribute-substitution heuristic

摘要

The present article demonstrates that Keynes's analysis of inferential judgment and assimilation that was inherent in his theory of fundamental uncertainty is consistent with and historically a predecessor of attribute-substitution accounts of models of heuristic judgment, which are used in modern behavioral economics. This conclusion is important because it associates Keynes's theory of fundamental uncertainty with contemporary psychology, it explains key ideas of the former in terms of cognitive psychology, and it strengthens the importance of Keynesian psychological concerns for the development of contemporary behavioral economics.