Vehicle Ownership Modeling Framework for the State of Maryland: Analysis and Trends from 2001 and 2009 NHTS Data

摘要

This paper presents a vehicle ownership modeling framework for the state of Maryland estimated on data extracted from the 2001 and 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The framework consists of vehicle ownership models and vehicle usage models; the models are based on a wide variety of sociodemographics, land-use variables, and operating cost. The models' results and the deriving sensitivity analyses show that changes in income and unemployment rate or compact development have little effect on vehicle ownership rates. Nevertheless, the combined effect of high density and increase in fuel cost produce a significant reduction in vehicle usage. The vehicle ownership model estimated on 2001 data has been successfully incorporated into the Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM).