Spatial Structure of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration Based on Dynamic Simulation Analysis

摘要

This paper proposes the dynamic simulation analysis on the basis of summarizing the international theories and methods of urban agglomeration spatial analysis, and uses this analysis on the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration as an example. The dynamic simulation analysis aims to grasp the thread of historical development of an urban agglomeration, predict its future development trend, simulate its expansion condition, and find its advantages and disadvantages. In the analysis process, a grid system of 6,808 cells measuring 5 x 5 km was established on the base maps of the urban built-up areas of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration during 1980 to 2010. In every grid cell, the proportions of built-up areas were measured by MAPGIS. All grid cells were colored with different shades according to the density of the built-up area. Then the authors drew up three-dimensional curves using the centrifugal model, which quantified the distribution and change of grid cells. After that, the authors built rose maps which dynamically simulated the historical expansion trend of those cities. Through the above research, the past and future development trend and characteristics of the urban agglomeration were summarized completely. This analysis method is significantly different from the previous methods. It can not only grasp the current and historical development situations, but also forecast future development trends and simulate expansion degrees in various directions of the urban agglomeration. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.