Team Travel Effects and the College Football Betting Market

摘要

This research examines whether the college football betting line and over/under accurately assimilate travel effects on visiting teams, including time zones traversed; direction and distance traveled; and temperature, elevation, and aridity changes. We investigate the market's accuracy at predicting winners, point differentials, and points scored and examine its market efficiency, that is, whether travel affects the chance the home team covers the spread or the chance that an over bet wins. The betting market is found to be an inaccurate and inefficient processor of travel effects, most consistently for late-season games involving an underdog with a 1-hr time deficit versus its opponent.