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On the Selection of Growth-Curve Models for Forecasting the Diffusion of IT Technologies

机译:预测IT技术扩散的增长曲线模型的选择

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摘要

Several growth-curve forecasting models are compared with respect to empirical data sets from IT industry of Korea and attempt is made to suggest a case-wise guiding principle in terms of technology (service) type and data length. It turns out, as expected, no single model consistently outperforms others across all data sets. Instead, for a given data type, we can determine which models should be recommended and which should be avoided. A good practice then is to evaluate two or three preferred models in terms of multiple performance measures and make a final decision based on the results. The practical usefulness of the selection guideline is confirmed by practitioners of some principal IT firms in Korea.
机译:针对韩国IT行业的经验数据集,比较了几种增长曲线预测模型,并尝试从技术(服务)类型和数据长度方面提出案例指导原则。事实证明,没有一个模型能在所有数据集上始终胜过其他模型。相反,对于给定的数据类型,我们可以确定应建议使用哪些模型,应避免使用哪些模型。好的做法是根据多项绩效指标评估两个或三个首选模型,并根据结果做出最终决定。选择指南的实用性已被韩国一些主要IT公司的从业人员证实。

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