China's first priority in post-war state building: A wealthy state, or a strong army?

摘要

This analysis examined causal links in China's defence-growth nexus in 1960-2016. The results show that better growth significantly reduces military-civilian ratio and propels military reforms. The unidirectional threshold causality from growth to defence shows that the military impact on a positive change in China's growth is little in the long term. Conversely, the growth impact of a positive change in defence has accelerated after it reaches the threshold year in 1987. This finding explains why Chinese economy stagnated when defence was prioritised and why China has risen dramatically in the Far East after three decades of fast economic growth. (C) 2018 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.