Islam and earthquakes: seismic risk perception in a Muslim city

摘要

In the Qur''an, earthquakes are separated from other natural hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception: this can be attributed to their focus in surah “al-Zalzala” (99th). In 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed across Agadir, Morocco 40 years after the 1960 tremor left 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. This study was conducted to obtain perceptions of quake recurrence, construction standard policies, seismology and local planning strategies. It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were likely to believe that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer (and stronger). Television-viewers were less knowledgeable about earthquakes, while most aspects of seismology were more widely understood by this group, suggesting that TV can be an efficient, mass education tool. Less educated respondents attributed earthquakes to divine retribution. Questions concerning quake recurrence caused an prevalent refusal to answer, commonly with the relpy of Allahu alam (God is wisest). Respondents stated or suggested that seismic-related forecasting, construction, architectural standards, and/or related education were haram (prohibited). Less educated often stated that Allah protected the devout, and considered most scientific assessment as futile since it was related to forecasting (also haram). New construction, building standards were considered as a waste since ONLY the kafir (non-Muslim) or munafiq (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from earthquakes. These conclusions are crucial in gaining insight into high-risk policies and behavior in a city laced with active faulting. Agadir is a thriving city of more than 600,000 residents, so to deny the probability of another quake, ignore construction standards, relief, recovery and evacuation plans, and to forego a community-wide hazard education program, can mean catastrophe over again.