Combined Simulation-Optimization Model for Assessing Irrigation Water Supply Capacities of Reservoirs

摘要

This paper presents a combined simulation-optimization model for simulating reservoir operations without any detailed operation rules; it features the integration of a nonlinear, multiple-objective function and a heuristic search method, the Shuffled Complex Evolution method, developed at the University of Arizona. The model is applied to optimal water allocations from both Balan Reservoir and Seomjingang Dam in South Korea, an irrigation reservoir and a multipurpose, multioutlet reservoir, respectively, that primarily supply irrigation water. In the case of the optimal operation of Balan Reservoir, the simulation results show that the optimal release patterns are similar to those of historical operations because the demands for irrigation water are accurately predicted and guide optimal reservoir operations. In addition, the model is successfully applied to establishing a long-term reservoir operation plan. As for the optimal operation of Seomjingang Dam, the reservoir operations are affected by the target water stages, and the model provides reasonable results, irrespective of inflow conditions. Moreover, the model is employed to create a new operation rule that is necessary to adapt to changes in the circumstances related to water management. Consequently, it is concluded that the model is useful for assessing reservoirs' irrigation water supply capacities when establishing operation plans and providing feasible alternatives for new operation rules, and it could be applied to real-time reservoir operations.