The significance of agricultural vs. natural ecosystem pathways in temperate climates in assessments of long-term radiological impact

摘要

Recent developments in performance assessment biosphere models have begun to emphasise the importance of natural accumulation pathways. In contrast to the agricultural pathways, the database for natural ecosystem pathways is less well developed, leading to a mismatch in quality of representations of the two types of system. At issue is the lack of reliable soil—plant and animal ingestion transfer factors for key radionuclides in natural ecosystems. The relative importance of the agricultural vs. natural ecosystem pathways is investigated here, in the context of a temperate site in present day, Eastern France. The BIOMASS Candidate Critical Group (CCG) methodology has been applied to map a set of eight candidate critical groups derived from the present-day societal context onto physical locations within a simple model of a river catchment system. The overall assessment model has been implemented using the Aquabios code. Annual individual dose to each of the CCGs has been calculated for each of the key radionuclides (~(79)Se, ~(94)Nb, ~(99)Tc, ~(129)I, ~(135)Cs and ~(237)Np) released to the valley aquifer and river. In addition to the traditional agricultural pathways, lifestyle groups exploiting natural habitats are explicitly addressed. Results show the susceptibility of different candidate critical groups to different radionuclides. A reference database typical of those employed in long-term performance assessment models is employed. Doses from external exposure (~(94)Nb) and dust inhalation (~(237)Np) are shown to dominate agricultural food consumption by factors of more than six, but, with the reference data set, foodstuffs obtained from natural ecosystems do not contribute significantly to critical group dose and, at most, show similar exposures to the agricultural pathways. This may lead to the conclusion that natural food can be ruled out of consideration in performance assessment models. However, systematic parametric sensitivity studies carried out on soil猵lant and animal ingestion transfer factors restrict the validity of this observation and demonstrate the limitations of existing databases. Remaining uncertainties can be reduced by improving structural models for performance assessment and by better characterisation of sources of locally obtained foods. Improved characterisation of radionuclide accumulation in natural ecosystems in temperate as well as alternative future climate states should complement the modelling approach.