County-level indoor radon concentration mapping and uncertainty assessment in South Korea using geostatistical simulation and environmental factors

摘要

This paper presents a geostatistical simulation approach to not only map the county-level indoor radon concentration (IRC) distributions in South Korea, but also quantify the uncertainty that can be used as decision-supporting information. For county-level IRC mapping in South Korea, environmental factors including geology, radium concentration in surface soil, gravel content in subsoil, and fault line density, which are known to be associated with the source and migration of radon gas, were incorporated into IRC measurements using multi-Gaussian kriging with local means. These four environmental factors could account for about 36% of the variability of noise-filtered IRCs, implying that regional variations of IRCs were affected by these factors. Sequential Gaussian simulation was then applied to generate alternative realizations of county-level IRC distributions. By summarizing the multiple simulation results, we identified some counties that lay on the great limestone series showed elevated IRCs. In addition, there were some counties in which the proportion of grids exceeding the recommended level was high but the uncertainty was also large according to the analysis of several uncertainty measures, which indicates that additional sampling is required for these counties. From the local cluster analysis in conjunction with simulation results, we found that the counties with higher levels of IRC belonged to the statistically significant clusters of high values, and these counties should be the prime targets for radon management and in-depth survey. The geographical distributions of IRC and uncertainty measures presented in this study provide guidance for effective radon management if they are consistently combined with both future IRC measurements and a geogenic radon potential map.