Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s

摘要

Economists have long been intrigued by empirical evidence that suggests that oil price shocks may be closely related to macroeconomic performance. This interest dates back to the 1970s. The 1970s were a period of growing dependence on imported oil, unprecedented disruptions in the global oil market and poor macroeconomic performance in the United States. Thus, it was natural to suspect a causal relationship from oil prices to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates. Since then, a large body of work has accumulated that purports to establish this link on theoretical grounds and to provide empirical evidence in its support. We do not attempt a comprehensive survey of this literature, but rather provide an idiosyncratic synthesis of what we view as the key issues in this debate and the insights gained over the last 30 years.