Complexity and Economic Policy: A Paradigm Shift or a Change in Perspective? A Review Essay on David Colander and Roland Kupers's Complexity and the Art of Public Policy

Alan Kirman

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Complexity and Economic Policy: A Paradigm Shift or a Change in Perspective? A Review Essay on David Colander and Roland Kupers's Complexity and the Art of Public Policy

机译：复杂性与经济政策：范式转变还是观点转变？戴维·柯兰德与罗兰·库珀斯的复杂性与公共政策艺术的评论论文

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In their recent book, Colander and Kupers (2014) argue that viewing the economy as a complex adaptive system should change the way in which we make economic policy. This would necessitate a paradigm shift. Economics has, over time, tried to produce a coherent model to underpin the dominant laissez-faire liberal approach. But we have never proved, in that model, that left to their own devices, the participants in an economy will self-organize into a satisfactory state. This is an assumption. Complex interactive systems with direct interaction between heterogeneous agents may show no tendency to self-equilibrate and will undergo endogenous crises. Economists should concentrate on the emergence of certain patterns. Colander and Kupers suggest that we may be able to nudge the system into "good" basins of attraction. A more radical view is that there are no fixed basins of attraction; these change with the evolution of the system and it is illusory to believe that we can choose good basins. We may be able to recognize and influence the emergence of certain states of the economy, but we are far from Leon Walras's dream of economics as a science like astrophysics.

机译：Colander和Kupers（2014）在最近的书中认为，将经济视为复杂的适应性系统应该改变我们制定经济政策的方式。这将需要进行范式转换。随着时间的流逝，经济学试图建立一个连贯的模型，以支持占主导地位的自由放任自由主义方法。但是，我们从来没有证明过，在那种模式下，经济参与者会自行组织成令人满意的状态。这是一个假设。异质因子之间具有直接相互作用的复杂相互作用系统可能不会显示出自我平衡的趋势，并且会经历内源性危机。经济学家应专注于某些模式的出现。 Colander和Kupers建议，我们可以将系统推向“良好”的吸引力盆地。更为激进的观点是，没有固定的吸引力盆地。这些随着系统的发展而变化，相信我们可以选择好的盆地是虚幻的。我们也许能够认识并影响某些经济状况的出现，但我们离莱昂·瓦尔拉斯（Leon Walras）的经济学梦想（如天体物理学）还很遥远。

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《Journal of Economic Literature》 |2016年第2期|534-572|共39页
作者
Alan Kirman;
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Aix Marseille University and Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;

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Complexity and Economic Policy: A Paradigm Shift or a Change in Perspective? A Review Essay on David Colander and Roland Kupers's Complexity and the Art of Public Policy

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