How streetcars shaped suburbanization: a Granger causality analysis of land use and transit in the Twin Cities

摘要

This article presents a Granger causality analysis of the coupled development of population and streetcars in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St Paul Historic residence and network data were assembled for 1900–1930, and linear cross-sectional time-series models were estimated at both a tract and block level using these data. It is found that, in contrast with transportation systems that were expanded in response to increased demand, the rapid expansion of the streetcar system during the electric era has been driven by other forces and to a large extent led land development in the Twin Cities. The main forces that have driven this process include technological superiority, monopoly, close connections with real estate business and people's reliance on the streetcar for mobility. Proximity to the streetcar is found to be a crucial factor that determines the distribution and development of residences: it is observed that residential density declines with the distance from streetcar lines, and significantly drops beyond a walkable distance; it is also observed that gaining a closer access to streetcar lines within 800 m (about a half mile) predicts the increase in residential density to a significant extent.