Fuzzy Weighted Interpretive Structural Modeling: Improved Method for Identification of Risk Interactions in Construction Projects

摘要

The construction industry has a major role in the economic development of any country. Because of the nature of the construction industry and its unique characteristics, and the overtime work and overbudget funds spent on these projects, there are many risks which may occur during a project's lifecycle. Should a specific risk happen, the probability and impact of the other risks will be affected, which often affects the project's objectives. Therefore it is necessary to consider risk interaction in order to improve the management of project risks. This paper proposes the fuzzy weighted interpretive structural modeling (FWISM). A two-round Delphi method is applied by asking 10 experts to specify the importance of each risk interaction with a fuzzy number due to the uncertain nature of the risks. This paper presents a network of risk interactions in construction projects which then provide the necessary means for exploring the influence of and dependence among the risk factors. In order to identify the key factors that drive the system, MICMAC analysis is applied. The results show that contractual anomalies most influence the other risks of a given project, whereas certain risks such as construction delay or interruptions are more susceptible to these influences than are other risks. (C) 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.