Explaining international stock correlations with CPI fluctuations and market volatility

摘要

This paper investigates the dynamic correlations among six international stock market indices and their relationship to inflation fluctuation and market volatility. The current research uses a newly developed time series model, the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation with Conditional Auto Regressive Range (DSTCC-CARR) model. Findings reveal that international stock correlations are significantly time-varying and the evolution among them is related to cyclical fluctuations of inflation rates and stock volatility. The higher/lower correlations emerge between countries when both countries experience a contractionary/expansionary phase or higher/lower volatilities.