A Cost Function Approach to the Prediction of Passenger Distribution at the Subway Platform

摘要

This paper proposes a cost function approach to predict the passenger distribution at the platform, which is contributed to provide services to the passenger safety and convenience and also an efficient use of the subway platform. According to the limited observation and field data collection of Beijing Xuanwumen subway station, passenger behaviors and basic attributes at the platform are analyzed. Based on the analysis and investigation, factors including the distance to the waiting area, the passenger density in the visual field, and the length of the waiting area occupied by passengers are put forward as important factors to affect the choice of the waiting area. The determination of the real-time choice defined by these factors is applied to model the passengers' waiting area choice behaviors. Simulation experiments are run for the model calibration and validation combining with the collected field data. The results show that the passenger distribution which arises from the model is capable of keeping consistent with the actual distribution in the rough. The model is helpful for controlling how heavy carriages are congested and providing suggestions to optimize the layout of platform facilities.