An algorithm for predicting the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall rate

摘要

A nowcasting algorithm is introduced in this work. The algorithm uses radar rainfall data to estimate the rainfall field by first predicting the most likely rain areas and then predicting the expected rainfall rate intensity in each rain pixel. Radar data of three tropical storms were used to validate the proposed approach. Prediction errors show that the proposed algorithm is a potentially useful tool for prediction of spatial rainfall variability for short time intervals. The outputs from the rainfall algorithm can be assimilated by a numerical hydrological/inundation mapping model to predict flash-flood events. Although radar reflectivity was used to illustrate the performance of the algorithm, an extension to satellite rainfall data is a straightforward implementation.