AN APPROACH TO RESILIENCE IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

摘要

Qynamic systems are characterize by a collection‘ of;variables and theirl interrelationship/s oven time.Hence.a tjynamic 57% r.e.tier,s;to aiiygg that exolxes or;(:11/artgtgs oxen time l_i_l_:e ym lzanls a,c_c,Qu_ttt or;a: countries C_C/0.I10_I1'llC growth.Resilience;is;the;of a dynamic swim to tietuttn L0.21 stidx state or: stable periodic orbit after;a (E to;big) distturbance and thetrefore the;systems b_ehavio_ur,» will be stable or nirginallyg stablej.Resilience btehavtitotur of the systg stri_v.es to;minimize regret and migge riskl by being a: stablej on marginally stable system.In mathematical terms this definition of resilience refer to convergence,for all starting values near the equilibrium (or small disturbance to the equilibrium) the system will not move away from the/a equilibrium,i.e.a stable (steady state) system or the stable periodic orbit.Hence the system will oscillate between a finite number of points on the long term.To achieve sustainability within a system (e.g.transportation networks,etc.),the way of thinking,planning,project design and implementation needs to be resilient in order to contribute to the system wide sustainability.It thus implies a need for quantitative data and information to optimise planning and to support decision making in an adaptive fashion.Through being able to describe how the system evolves over time,it enable ways to define preconditions or input that will ensure a dynamic system remain stable to promote resilience and sustainability.At present,theory and practices do not make pro~ vision for the development of improved adaptive capacities in all phases of planning through dynamic transportation systems planning and development.The aim of this paper is to introduce and develop resilience-orientated frameworks and approaches based on application of mathematical,statistical and decision-making tools,which can be used to enhance the interface between resilience and sustainability alignment though dynamic thinking,plan- ning and implementation in transportation systems.In the end,this will lead to improved management and sustainable transport planning.