Socio-economic development model based on stochastic advance-retreat course An analysis on US economy in recent 70 years

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to reveal some basic characteristics in social and economic process, and lay the analytic foundation for advance-retreat course (ARC). Design/methodology/approach - The paper presents the analytic model of stochastic ARC (SARC), which is based on the partial distribution and partial process (belonging to the probability theory and stochastic process), and describes some important characteristics of social and economic process in a quantitative method. Findings - The successful socio-economic process, including many biological process, are usually divided into three basic stages: the" weak growth, the quick development and the swift decline. In general, rapid growth brings with it the weak persistence, and slow growth brings with it the strong persistence. The socio-economic fluctuations are mainly caused by the excessive environmental pressures. The duration of the socio-economic growth is inverse with the environmental pressure. Research limitations/implications - All the basic variables and parameters in an ARC model should be no less than zero. Practical implications - Based on US GDP (chained) price index data (1940-2005), American economic process in recent 70 years is analyzed, and the analysis indicates, American economic motivity is clearly insufficient after 2008, and the present economic recovery will be very arduous and prolonged. Social implications - The environmental pressures will become the main problem for future global socio-economic development. Originality/value - SARC model in this paper presents a special way to analyze the social development and economic growth, and is helpful to related academic research and socio-economic decision making.