Hydrological projections of fluvial floods in the Uruguay and Parana basins under different climate change scenarios

摘要

Hydrological modelling with climate scenario data are used to develop projections of changes in frequency and duration of flood events in the margins of the lower sections of the Parana and Uruguay Rivers in La Plata Basin for the twenty-first century. Discharges were simulated with the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model considering the statistically bias corrected daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall outputs from five regional climate models and different emission scenarios. Results show that although it is expected that compared to the current conditions the temperature would rise and precipitation would have a slight increase in La Plata Basin during the present century, more frequent and lasting fluvial flooding events in the lower Parana and Uruguay basins could be expected. However, the range of results derived from different climate models though consistent in sign, indicate that the uncertainty is large.